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Re: risk assessment - Likelihood determination

from [juanmjr] Network Security [Permanent Link]
Subject: Re: risk assessment - Likelihood determination
Date: 22 Dec 2005 18:37:21 -0000 
For some guidance you can read Octave-S implementation guide (Vol. 4 - S4.2). 
http://www.cert.org/octave-s/download/ 

Assigning probability to threats is difficult. While some data has been 
gathered and made available on the general probabilities of certain types of 
attacks, translating that probability to the context of a specific company and 
a specific asset is far more difficult. That's why some risk assessment 
methodologies, e.g. OCTAVE, treat the probability of all threats as equal - 1. 

I think using "likelihood of occurrence" is important, just remember to 
consider the magnitude of risk impact first.

Juan Martinez
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